This article, written just before Trump's 2016 victory, is required reading for 2020https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74/amp …
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I can't tell if he's just poorly informed about elections, or if he just doesn't get tail events on an intuitive level. 2.5 percentile events look weird! That doesn't mean they don't have a 2.5% chance of happening.
Yes, "event with 1% chance of happening seems very unlikely to happen, why are we assigning it any chance at all?" is a very head-desky take
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Occurs to me that you could go a long time (maybe even 20 years) in consulting before underestimating tail risks bite you in the ass, if you're lucky.
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This is the kind of guy who loves to pick up Nichols in front of a steamroller Wow, it’s free money. Why am I the only one doing this?
End of conversation
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Somebody call
@nntalebThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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