First you think the bottleneck is money, then you think the bottleneck is talent, and if you persist long enough in trying to throw money and talent at your problem, you realize that the bottleneck is ideas.
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Of course, serendipity means you can't always know when something that looks stupid will turn out to be important in retrospect. But *maybe* some skepticism is warranted when 50% of "makers" are working on to-do list apps.
A big part of the problem is assuming that good ideas are obvious, or that a process that generates good ideas would never also produce bad ideas
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In a way good ideas *are* obvious in a tautological sense, e.g. "build something that creates more utility than incumbent solution." That's why I usually try to avoid the whole idea/execution dichotomy. Always ends up in demarcation arguments.
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I think you could probably replace the word 'idea' with 'vision'.
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It's not obvious what will succeed even if its a good idea that some niche people might like. It seems like the Lean Startup method of iterating and altering ideas to fit the market is a good way to see what the demand is and to pivot repeatedly if necessary toward what is wanted
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An example of this, I've long had ideas for gyms eg that generate electricity, or that charge people a lot if they don't go, but as little as free if they go an hour daily. What is the demand for that? Other people have made businesses out of both of those, so there must be some.
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• "All great ideas start as weird ideas. What now seems obvious, early on, is not obvious to anybody." ~ Steve Case
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