This poll will give deceiving results. Even if Trump has well under a 50% of winning he'll still win this poll since the Democratic candidates are split between Biden and "other". Trump's percentage would greatly decrease if the Democrats were merged.
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Replying to @merehap
I suspect my followers are broadly capable of mentally adding two 1-2 digit numbers
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Replying to @webdevMason
My point is that it isn't a matter of addition. If Trump has 45% odds of winning, Biden has 20%, and other has 35%, then the poll could sanely show 100% for Trump, even though he doesn't even have majority odds of winning the election. Odds can't be calculated from these numbers.
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Replying to @merehap @webdevMason
I guess it's possible that that was your intention, but in that case anyone voting for non-Trump in this poll is insane. They'd have to believe that he has ~25% or less odds of winning the election.
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Replying to @merehap
I'm really trying to reconstruct your thought process here, but I'm failing...
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Replying to @webdevMason
If someone thinks that odds(Trump) > odds(other) AND o(Trump) > o(Biden), they would vote Trump here. So it seems unlikely that someone would vote non-Trump. They'd have to believe that Trump has a low chance of winning the election, or that Biden isn't the Dem front-runner.
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Replying to @merehap @webdevMason
Maybe I'm way off-base and people really do think that Trump is going to lose in a land-slide. That seems unbelievable to me when he has a 45% approval rating. But I think the poll reduces to the question "Will trump lose in a land-slide or not?"
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Replying to @merehap
I'm not intending for people to consider the available options pairwise, although I can see how they might. This falls under the general category of "please take it up with Twitter, which will not allow me the characters or number of options I would obviously prefer."
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In any case, I'm pleading Sir This Is A Wendy's. We're not 538ing it, here. It's a twitter poll.
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