Article does not describe the problem as "apocalyptic," and Bob's description is not accurate. The article simply cited a UK dept of health review. No strong claims that I can see.pic.twitter.com/swSogTDQdd
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What I'm saying is that all cause of death data is kinda bullshit, and the infectious disease part is the most bullshit of all. Start with crappy data, get crappy predictions. But this is probably gonna end up with me having to go look at the damn study I suppose...
Projecting *anything* to 2050 is rocky, and again, I think it's probably impossible to confidently attribute a *particular* death w/ many comorbid factors to any singular cause. But do you think all population-level morbidity modeling is useless? That's a much stronger claim.
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I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying we're spilling a lot of digital ink here and all I'm seeing is one bad study that has *nothing to do with this one* cited. Help me out here.
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The wash u study cited in the article that has the highest estimate for mortality does not control for other illnesses. In my experience treating patients like these that is not appropriate. The cdc estimate is probably better but I can’t find the primary reference.
End of conversation
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