That isn't a fair representation.
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Replying to @webdevMason @SkepticalAlpaca
FWIW, as someone with some relevant expertise (microbiology PhD) I tend to agree with Bob here -a bad problem, but not nearly as apocalyptic as the media (and some scientists tbf) make out.
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Replying to @halvorz @SkepticalAlpaca
Article does not describe the problem as "apocalyptic," and Bob's description is not accurate. The article simply cited a UK dept of health review. No strong claims that I can see.pic.twitter.com/swSogTDQdd
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Replying to @webdevMason @SkepticalAlpaca
The article as a whole read as very apocalyptic to me, and that matches the reactions I've seen elsewhere. Unlikely to spread to healthier pops significantly, immunocompetent people don't really get severe Candida. Very suspicious of the death projections.
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Note that determining cause of death here is often hard -"what killed her, was it the cancer, or the chemo, or the Acinetobacter infection?" E.g., a lot of the deaths attributed to resistant bugs may be of folks already on death's door.
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Replying to @halvorz @SkepticalAlpaca
Yes, but let's not act like such a thing is impossible to begin to model.
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At the level of the individual, it may never be possible to fully appreciate the significance of ultimate vs. proximate contributing causal events re: death or to really defend the counterfactual. We can do *a lot* more at the population level.
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(I haven't read the study, though, and it sounds like maybe you have...?)
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Replying to @webdevMason @SkepticalAlpaca
Not sure if I've read this particular study -I may have looked into it a while back- but there have been a lot of similar projections. But the main thing is I'm skeptical of the current death numbers which these projections are based on.
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How are the numbers you're skeptical of calculated, and what problems do you see with the methodology? (Genuinely curious!)
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