Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️

What’s going to be very important in 5 years’ time that we’re not thinking enough about now?

The collapse of (most of) the university system's credentialing power (and *fingers crossed* an attendant local-level revolt against occupational licensing).

This implies a massive increase in information costs without a replacement. Are you betting on this resulting from macro-level decrease in info costs or a replacement credential that's similarly info-dense + higher signal?

What nobody wants to say: everything captured in a typical college degree could also be captured by an IQ test + the evidenced willingness to sit down and copy the Bible, word for word, by hand, over 4 years. The ability to credential *actual skills* has amassed a GIANT pot.

1/2 While I agree with your last sentence, I think there's more signal in a college degree. For a (relatively) small group of effective autodidacts, there's low or no value. But forced-ish exposure to new ideas builds useful frameworks for a lot of people.

Yep, this is the "critical thinking"/"human development"/"personal growth" argument that people keep repeating, over and over, without providing any evidence that it's anything more than wishful thinking. Strongly suggest you read Caplan's book.

I will read his book, but I don't think that's my argument. I would never have picked up an economics textbook when I was 18. Being forced to take some classes and then learning specific, substantive things in those classes was valuable (to me, at least).