(I am actually of many minds on this & would have difficulty answering my own poll.)
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For a complex-but-typical large-scale government project, what % of the total project budget is the *most* that should be committed to evaluating whether the project is on track/using resources properly/working?
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Careful and appropriate alignment of incentives is massively better than a higher % spent making sure the bureaucracy inspects itself well. Otherwise they'll use all the money and just "notice really hard" how over-budget they're gonna be.
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Like the big dig (which I'm 1000% glad they did in spite of cost) probably wouldn't have cost less if they spent more studying how much it was gonna cost. Some incentives needed to change, and some problems are simply too hard to predict until you start digging.
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Tough Q. Lots of variables at play. How accurate is the evaluation, how inefficient is a typical program, how likely is the evaluation to be acted on, what are expected gains for acting on evaluation.
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Intuitively, I'd think that no amount of evaluation will help if the metrics or motives of the project are bad, but unsure.
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How do we ensure the evaluation is on track/using resouces properly/working tho
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Hard to say. Maybe only portions of the budget should be handed out as the project progresses to the next stage. This makes it in the contractors interest to be efficient.
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If the oversight budget is on track/using resources properly/working then <= 5%
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related anecdote: on this morning’s EconTalk, the researcher says Seattle budgeted just $100K to research the effect of increasing the minimum wage to $15. The only bid for the job came in at 1.4mm, so the city scraped up some cash + the researchers got grants for the rest.
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Ideally the % should reflect the amount it would take to help the project deliver better results at a lower cost, and to find out what *that* should be, we should have the govt embark on a project to test............. [okay, I guess I'm of many minds on this question too
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