I’m trying not to be a *complete* capitalist shill but Vox, you are testing me https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/2019/1/4/18168431/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-70-percent …
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Agree. My key claims are that (a) economic policy outcome predictions broadly have a poor track record & the evidentiary value of modeling there is often illusory & (b) recent tech has created an absolute explosion of possible moves for actors, further increasing the difficulty
My view, generally, is this: start with an understanding of how incredibly advantageous the US's starting position is, a deep humility with regard to *anyone's* ability to make good predictions about increasingly complex systems, and move slowly + cautiously.
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I think we have an overlapping Venn diagram. I am frankly befuddled about what to do (policywise) when evidence is less than definitive and ideologies collide. Maybe contingent legislation (ie start with approach A but if that fails switch to opposing approach B)?
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IMO: don’t make dramatic populist moves based on unprovable assumptions when your current position is actually very strong. Public opinion may be that everything is on fire anyway, but this is unequivocally untrue
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