I’m trying not to be a *complete* capitalist shill but Vox, you are testing me https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/2019/1/4/18168431/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-70-percent …
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This is a pretty narrow slice of all the possible effects of a change for the top marginal tax bracket. But let's zoom waaay out: should policy (including taxation) be based primarily on ideology or evidence? Serious non-gotcha question.
Agree. My key claims are that (a) economic policy outcome predictions broadly have a poor track record & the evidentiary value of modeling there is often illusory & (b) recent tech has created an absolute explosion of possible moves for actors, further increasing the difficulty
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My view, generally, is this: start with an understanding of how incredibly advantageous the US's starting position is, a deep humility with regard to *anyone's* ability to make good predictions about increasingly complex systems, and move slowly + cautiously.
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I think we have an overlapping Venn diagram. I am frankly befuddled about what to do (policywise) when evidence is less than definitive and ideologies collide. Maybe contingent legislation (ie start with approach A but if that fails switch to opposing approach B)?
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Re: predictions - one view: “History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again.” ~ Kurt Vonnegut
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