I believe that some baseline welfare state is necessary to make people comfortable w having families despite the unavoidable volatility of a continuously evolving economy Unfortunately (-sigh-) there's not empirical support for this? But it would be SO convenient to not be wrong
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pretty much any anti poverty policy is also a pro-fertility policy, since children and parents are more likely to be poor than single adults.
But this doesn't seem borne (heh) out by the global data, e.g. comparing rich countries with strong social protections to poor ones without?
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The high empathy votes that vote for such policies tend rarely use them. They’re voting for others. On the other hand, the almost permanent poor class tends to multiply most under these systems. Maybe the latter can be remedied by ever more aggressive, quality education for kids
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richer countries have lower fertility rates than poor ones and also have more generous welfare states. but ceteris paribus I would expect a larger welfare state to boost fertility. effect size is probably not that high though.
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He can be right, and the system complex enough that it is not borne out in the greater trend. Complex system may have other dominating confounders. His statement is robust though and I wouldn't discard it easily. Not saying you are, just giving his side of the scale a nod.
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