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In other words, “the idea seemed crazy so they ALMOST couldn’t find funding” is exactly what you should expect to see if the system *is working*
If you believe both (a) good entrepreneurial ideas matter & (b) VC is systemically biased in some direction that makes it a poor evaluator of ideas, you should predict that a fresh team is about to come in & wipe the floor with the good ol’ boys
Not necessarily. What if the knowledge that the bias isn't true isn't yet known to anyone in the VC culture?
In academic fields, it is disturbingly common for entire fields to be in thrall to a misconception, to their detriment, for decades.
A lot of the top-returning startups require several large rounds of funding in order to succeed and get to the point where they can make the enormous returns that VC relies on to cover all their other losses. These rounds are so large that a single contrarian fund is not (1/)
going to be able to go in and fund it single-handedly. So firms have to rely on the follow-ons and the idea that eventually other people will fund as well. There's also far less risk of being massively outcompeted if you know that you and your competitors own all the same (2/)
Is this true accounting for the fact that VCs may sometimes push talented entrepreneurs down a bad path sometimes i.e to scale prematurely? As to say they correctly identified the talented people and redirected that talent toward failure?
I believe it is like throwing darts blindly and a posteriori trying to make sense. Haven’t seen anyone able to methodically recognize two future mega successes early enough
what i think keeps this from being a widespread strategy - and i 100% would be pursuing it if back in VC - is an inability to back through all stages, without which now you're betting on other VCs also working against a bias / blind spot to fund subsequent rounds
"the a16z story"
Concur.
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