Not to say that VC works perfectly... but if it systematically fails to identify certain kinds of value, that’s a massive exploitable opportunity conferring rewards proportionate to the egregiousness of the systemic error
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Fundamentally, venture capital is the business of identifying & believing in ambitious people who need someone to believe in them. The greater the extent to which they're underestimated, the more you stand to gain — why is this *never* articulated?
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In other words, “the idea seemed crazy so they ALMOST couldn’t find funding” is exactly what you should expect to see if the system *is working*
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If you believe both (a) good entrepreneurial ideas matter & (b) VC is systemically biased in some direction that makes it a poor evaluator of ideas, you should predict that a fresh team is about to come in & wipe the floor with the good ol’ boys
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So true. Also there are gains to be made by believing in people beyond venture capital too. Everyone, not just VCs, could benefit from that attitude.
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It seems like a cultural failing if everybody’s default mentality is ‘I can’t make progress or do great things’ until somebody explicitly tells them otherwise.
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That’s the contrarian/heterodox thesis. Actual contrarianism looks like most VCs thinking it’s stupid or too risky but it’s actually not. Maybe also the conventional industry thinks you’re wrong. Travis from Uber is actually a great example. He struggled to get funding for Uber.
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I generally agree with this. But to give a counter. If you're funding round is not sufficient to be the last funding round than venture also requires that after your round + their progress *others* will continue to give them the resources needed.
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In fairness
@paulg articulates this well in his@startupschool lectures from founder perspective - good ideas that are “obvious” can be replicated easily by better-resourced incumbents (or have been tried already). The best ideas sound like bad ideas.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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This is what makes pg who he is. He makes bets on folks that others would never and he’s right... a lot! Black swan farming
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