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wrt societal impact, I honestly think fully-automated cars are more akin to seasteading than "upgrade to transit system"
I think this will trigger another innovation boom. On its face it'll probably favor those w/ pre-existing capital & government connections, but there will be lots of space to carve out for those w/ logistics savvy or a keen eye for rapidly shifting culture/mass behavior patterns
@BenedictEvans has a great essay about this: Cars and Second Order Consequences.
"it was easy to predict mass car ownership but hard to predict Wal-mart"
https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-second-order-consequences …
Agreed, and with a lot of upheaval. The sheer amount of the modern economy built around personal car ownership is staggering (parking, gas stations, mechanics, etc.).
Agreed, but I'm guessing it won't be so good for many whose pre existing capital is largely in real estate.
I have a sense that AVs will bankrupt the police. If they rely on traffic ticket revenue and can't ticket 99% infallible AVs, how do the police stay afloat?
What I think about is how kids will be able to get around so easily. But how will that be affected by the trend to not let kids be free-range?
Also once cars come and go on their own I think we’re going to discover we’re not as attached to them and we’ll just subscribe to a fleet instead of owning our own. Garages will be used for extra living space.
I can see people living in their self driving vehicles. Have you read "The Diamond Age" we are getting closer to this reality. Personal nano manufacturing will change things more dramatically than self driving cars. Honest decentralized money will make all of this possible.
Optimist in me hopes it leads to less car only spaces in city centers, by for example replacing huge four person cars with smaller, use case specific self-driving pods.
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