Climo would've also suggested that this recent hurricane should stay offshore... anomalous predecessors can more easily yield anomalous outcomes.pic.twitter.com/8ylOI0pAzI
There's been a lot of talk lately about climo dictating that #Florence stays OTS. Unfortunately, there's nothing climatologically "normal" about the upcoming pattern, thanks in part to #Jebi. The 1933 Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane nearly passed over Bermuda & still hit the US.pic.twitter.com/MAfZPGuf5P
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Exactly. This storm in 1901 is still the craziest, most anomalous hurricane track I've seen in HURDAT2pic.twitter.com/wcNfZDczz0
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2 others that "beat" the trough at 30N and were **almost** steered right into NC & the Mid Atlantic. Emily in 1993 and especially Felix in 1995.pic.twitter.com/M5FifIIh6W
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There definitely seem to be solid clusters on both EPS and GEFS with one of these "near miss" scenarios. The predictability of a TC and shortwave combo at Day 9-10 is probably close to 0 though.
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Good call focusing on one of the worst storms ever around here ;)
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EVERYBODY PANIC
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Another one similar to that would be the Vagabond Hurricane that hit Atlantic City in 1903.pic.twitter.com/Gl0gGS2CIB
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We can sense similar track based on vertical velocity anomalies (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) too for Florence. I stopped short of drawing those anomalies guided track :))
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I just stopped short of*
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