cognitive psychology. PhD 
Recent research in cognitive research suggests this is the case. See Noah Goodman's "Probabilistic Models of Cognition" book http://probmods.org/ , and for an example read "Optimal Predictions in Everyday Cognition" http://cocosci.princeton.edu/tom/papers/predictions.pdf …
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Actually it’s worth qualifying this comment. These results suggest people are Bayesian in that they hold probabilistic beliefs that get updated with evidence. However, people don’t explicitly estimate likelihoods or reason about distributions.
Instead, evidence suggests that people can only sample from their belief distributions. See refs on the “sampling hypothesis”https://mobile.twitter.com/wcrichton/status/1080655291857932288 …
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