So it’s worth asking, when would it be rational to accept this deal? If you expected more downsides than upsides. If you expected them to hurt too much.https://twitter.com/fortelabs/status/959871441935114240 …
“Learned Optimism” by Seligman provided me a useful framework for understanding optimism-pessimism “phase space.” Super-quick read. To it, I would only add that the behavioral confirmation effect is overwhelmingly powerful.