Upcoming podcast with @MytheosHolt will explore the reasons why we believe Trump will win. http://reason.com/blog/2016/05/07/as-trump-coasts-to-the-nomination-rememb …
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Replying to @ElissaBeth
Trump is close to being my last choice for President but that's separate from whether I believe he'll win the election.
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Replying to @ElissaBeth
I'd love to hear your thoughts on why he would or would not win. We'll address these points in our upcoming show.
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Replying to @ElissaBeth @MytheosHolt
How do you square this with the prediction markets? http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner … Last-minute swing or gradual drift?
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Replying to @warrenm @MytheosHolt
The polling/pundits/data failed to predict Trump in primary. I believe we need to use logic to extrapolate the data.
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A few thoughts: 1. Trump was very good at winning voters in primary. I believe he can use same skillset in general.
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I hate this reason but I believe that 'old fashioned values' + misogyny will play in Trump's favor in the red states.
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Trump has done solid job dismantling support for his opponents. Can Hilary do the same to win swing voters? Not sure.
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Ton of reasons why I would prefer to see Hilary in office but Trump is formidable at playing the election game.
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What is really important tho - Warren, I hope you think that the 'Elissa on politics' show will be good tv.
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You already know I do.
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