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VitalikButerin's profile
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vitalik.ethVerified account

@VitalikButerin

Ethereum. Fable of the Dragon Tyrant (not mine but it's important): http://www.nickbostrom.com/fable/dragon.html … Abolish daylight savings time (and leap seconds too)

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    vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

    Happy new year! Today, a mini-tweetstorm of some of the things I've said and written over the past decade, and what I think about those subjects today.

    2:13 PM - 1 Jan 2022
    • 6,625 Retweets
    • 36,935 Likes
    • Anh Benjamin Luis CyberVoid Motanka Gopi Krishna cryptonun 『B』 probablynothing CatINCrypto
    1,658 replies 6,625 retweets 36,935 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        1. In 2013, I wrote this piece on "how Bitcoin can actually help Iranians and Argentinians". The core point: Bitcoin's key benefit is internationality and censorship resistance, NOT "the 21m limit". I predicted stablecoins will prosper. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/how-bitcoin-can-actually-help-iranians-and-argentinians-1374585681 …pic.twitter.com/UO9ojfzYEa

        95 replies 324 retweets 3,359 likes
        Show this thread
      3. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        Last week, I actually went to Argentina! My verdict: generally correct. Cryptocurrency adoption is high but stablecoin adoption is really high too; lots of businesses operate in USDT. Though of course, if USD itself starts showing more problems this could change.

        91 replies 284 retweets 3,918 likes
        Show this thread
      4. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        2. This piece from 2013 on the consequences of Bitcoin services becoming more "regulated": https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoin-is-not-losing-its-soul-or-why-the-regulation-hysteria-is-missing-the-point-1370302865 … Core argument: Bitcoin is resisting the government not by being clever about what *legal category* it's in, but rather by being technologically censorship-proof.pic.twitter.com/xXHbf83f5U

        37 replies 115 retweets 1,821 likes
        Show this thread
      5. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        My views today: sure, Bitcoin's decentralization would let it still *survive* under a super-hostile regulatory climate, but it could not *thrive*. Successful censorship resistance strategy requires a combination of technological robustness and public legitimacy.

        46 replies 159 retweets 2,588 likes
        Show this thread
      6. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        3. My projections from 2015 of when we will get PoS and sharding. Honestly, these were very wrong and worth laughing at; I'll share a screenshot of one of my presentations from 2015 so everyone can laugh more easily.pic.twitter.com/6tbsmajJyu

        52 replies 163 retweets 2,884 likes
        Show this thread
      7. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        But what was my core underlying mistake? IMO it's that I deeply underestimated the complexity of software development, and the diff between a python PoC and a proper production impl. 2014-era ideas were waaay too complex, eg. "12-dimensional hypercubes": https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/10/21/scalability-part-2-hypercubes/ …pic.twitter.com/0FNf6BY9sE

        46 replies 149 retweets 2,196 likes
        Show this thread
      8. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        vitalik.eth Retweeted Dankrad Feist

        Today the Ethereum research team values simplicity much more - both simplicity of the final design *and* simplicity of the path to getting there. More appreciation of pragmatic compromises. Dankrad's new sharding design is very much in this spirit.https://twitter.com/dankrad/status/1475995508372131842 …

        vitalik.eth added,

        Dankrad Feist @dankrad
        I'm thinking about a new sharding design, where instead of having independent proposers for each shard, all shard blocks in one slot are proposed together with the beacon block. This leads to a major simplification of the sharding design 1/n https://notes.ethereum.org/@dankrad/new_sharding …
        Show this thread
        30 replies 149 retweets 2,160 likes
        Show this thread
      9. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        4. Though I 100% stand by my comment that "the internet of money should not cost more than 5 cents per transaction". That was the goal in 2017, and it's still the goal now. It's precisely why we're spending so much time working on scalability.https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/5ib3m6/vitalik_the_internet_of_money_should_not_cost_5/ …

        281 replies 336 retweets 3,625 likes
        Show this thread
      10. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        5. I should also add that the core *idea* of sharding has survived unscathed. Blockchain 1.0: each node downloads everything, have consensus BitTorrent: each node downloads only a few things, but no consensus Ideal: BitTorrent-like efficiency but with blockchain-like consensus

        66 replies 118 retweets 2,218 likes
        Show this thread
      11. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        The core enabling technologies are committees, ZK-SNARKs and data availability sampling:https://vitalik.ca/general/2021/04/07/sharding.html …

        53 replies 149 retweets 1,941 likes
        Show this thread
      12. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        6. In 2012, I was briefly an apologist for PoW energy waste. Though fortunately, by 2013 I got excited about proof of stake as a promising alternative. By 2014, I was sold. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/the-wasted-electricity-objection-to-bitcoin-1330409176 … https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/what-proof-of-stake-is-and-why-it-matters-1377531463 … https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/11/25/proof-stake-learned-love-weak-subjectivity/ …

        75 replies 64 retweets 1,576 likes
        Show this thread
      13. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        This reflects a broader intellectual evolution I've had: from "X is what I must defend, so whatever is favorable to X must be correct" to "I like X, but X has flaws and it seems like Y fixes them, so I support X+Y now" Soldier mindset --> scout mindset.https://www.amazon.ca/Scout-Mindset-Perils-Defensive-Thinking/dp/0735217556 …

        113 replies 550 retweets 4,969 likes
        Show this thread
      14. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        7. This 2014 piece on self-enforcing contracts: https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/02/24/daos-are-not-scary-part-1-self-enforcing-contracts-and-factum-law/ … Basically, it tries to argue that making all of society more like a formal system is good and we should be excited about it.

        36 replies 79 retweets 1,408 likes
        Show this thread
      15. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        I got to see the limits of this style of thinking through my work on collusion: https://vitalik.ca/general/2019/04/03/collusion.html … https://vitalik.ca/general/2020/09/11/coordination.html … Basically, the problem with pushing everything into a formal system is that almost any formal system with more than 2 participants is attackable.

        41 replies 85 retweets 1,317 likes
        Show this thread
      16. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        8. I liked altcoins before altcoins were cool. See this from Sep 2013 (so, 2 months before Ethereum): https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/defense-alternative-cryptocurrencies … Three core arguments: (i) diff chains optimize for diff goals (ii) costs of having many chains are low (iii) need outlet in case core dev team is wrongpic.twitter.com/1vfSPwUqlc

        89 replies 107 retweets 1,444 likes
        Show this thread
      17. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        Do I still agree? The above args are less strong today, because (i) chains are more universal, (ii) apps more complex so bridging more risky, (iii) experimentation doable at L2. But even still, I think there are things that you can't do at L2, and there's room for different L1s

        71 replies 114 retweets 1,545 likes
        Show this thread
      18. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        vitalik.eth Retweeted vitalik.eth

        9. I was optimistic about Bitcoin Cash specifically, because I agreed with the big-blocker arguments in the scaling war more than the small-blocker arguments.https://twitter.com/vitalikbuterin/status/930276246671450112 …

        vitalik.eth added,

        vitalik.ethVerified account @VitalikButerin
        Replying to @BitcoinErrorLog @TokenHash and 12 others
        1. I consider BCH a legitimate contender for the bitcoin name. I consider bitcoin's *failure* to raise block sizes to keep fees reasonable to be a large (non-consensual) change to the "original plan", morally tantamount to a hard fork. 2. Theymos's censorship.
        90 replies 66 retweets 1,182 likes
        Show this thread
      19. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        Today, I would call BCH mostly a failure. My main takeaway: communities formed around a rebellion, even if they have a good cause, often have a hard time long term, because they value bravery over competence and are united around resistance rather than a coherent way forward.

        499 replies 781 retweets 6,063 likes
        Show this thread
      20. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        10. These posts from 2016-17 basically advocating for someone to build Uniswap. https://vitalik.ca/general/2017/06/22/marketmakers.html … https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/55m04x/lets_run_onchain_decentralized_exchanges_the_way/ …

        61 replies 69 retweets 1,467 likes
        Show this thread
      21. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        Obviously feel proud of this one😀 Though it's interesting how I got the "do something really simple and dumb even if it's suboptimal" concept so right here, but it took me so long to get there in the proof of stake and sharding designs.

        69 replies 60 retweets 1,583 likes
        Show this thread
      22. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        11. Applications envisioned in the Ethereum whitepaper: https://ethereum.org/en/whitepaper/  * ERC20-style tokens * Algorithmic stablecoins * Domain name systems (like ENS) * Decentralized file storage and computing * DAOs * Wallets with withdrawal limits * Oracles * Prediction markets

        143 replies 235 retweets 2,365 likes
        Show this thread
      23. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        A lot correct (basically predicted "defi"), though incentivized file storage + compute hasn't taken off that much (yet?), and of course I completely missed NFTs. I would say the biggest thing I missed in the details is collusion issues in DAO governance:https://vitalik.ca/general/2019/04/03/collusion.html …

        115 replies 134 retweets 1,701 likes
        Show this thread
      24. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        12. A more detailed opinion on stablecoins from 2014: https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/11/11/search-stable-cryptocurrency/ … A big part of this post tried to tackle the question of whether or not you could have a stablecoin without oracles, by using blockchain data (eg. PoW diff) as a pseudo-price-oracle.

        88 replies 77 retweets 1,236 likes
        Show this thread
      25. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        I'm more pessimistic about this now especially because of the PoS switch. We will need oracles. And if we want to make stablecoins robust to USD collapse (by switching to their own native CPI if that happens) we'll need more active governance.

        245 replies 276 retweets 2,423 likes
        Show this thread
      26. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        Conclusions: * My thinking about politics and large-scale human organization was more naive then. Too focused on simple and complete formal models; I did not appreciate challenges of culture and https://vitalik.ca/general/2021/03/23/legitimacy.html … then; I do now.

        141 replies 187 retweets 2,050 likes
        Show this thread
      27. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        * I did have good instincts early on for avoiding the craziest parts of bitcoin maximalist thinking. A couple early mistakes, but I corrected quickly * But X being wrong does not imply that any specific rebellion against X will go well! Yet another way in which politics is hard

        274 replies 267 retweets 2,840 likes
        Show this thread
      28. vitalik.eth‏Verified account @VitalikButerin Jan 1

        * On tech, I was more often right on abstract ideas than on production software dev issues. Had to learn to understand the latter over time * I have a deeper appreciation now of the need for even more simplicity than I thought we needed

        730 replies 297 retweets 4,533 likes
        Show this thread
      29. End of conversation

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