Trivial: imagining linearly extrapolated futures (eg: "extreme capitalism") Easy: imagining nonlinearly extrapolated (eg yin-yang cyclic) futures Hard: imagining evolved futures with mutations Really hard: imagining futures being invented by actions of imaginative people
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Replying to @vgr
Best is to effect the future, using control & co-creation, rather than become a slave to 'improved prediction methods'. See also "the first good paper I've seen" according to
@vkhosla: https://www.khoslaventures.com/wp-content/uploads/What_makes_entrepreneurs_entrepreneurial.pdf …1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes -
Replying to @prasanna_says @vkhosla
Inventing the future is always preferable of course, but is only possible in very narrow domains for any individual. Prediction is of interest whether or not creation is more effective.
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On the contrary, prediction works only in very narrow circumstances Since the future is effectively unknowable But it's comforting to improve prediction Have you read about effectuation? More entrepreneurs at all scales create the future than get credit for it
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Yes, it's vaguely interesting. You can predict anything, from climate futures to all of history. It doesn't work too well, but it's incorrect to say it doesn't work at all. It is not effectively unknowable. Perhaps not "usefully" knowable. But I like useless knowledge too.
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