I’ve always thought ‘absence of evidence is not evidence of absence’ is flawed for material truths because of the second law: presence of X, X being at different entropy from background, would necessarily produce evidence. No fire without smoke basically https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evidence_of_absence …
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At a non-metaphysical level, yeah you are unproblematically correct. In Bayesian reasoning the absence of evidence principle is just wrong.
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