I’ve always thought ‘absence of evidence is not evidence of absence’ is flawed for material truths because of the second law: presence of X, X being at different entropy from background, would necessarily produce evidence. No fire without smoke basically https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evidence_of_absence …
Yeah true, but as with all things Bayesian it seems to miss the point by letting the universe of discourse be effectively unbounded
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If you allow everything from simulation hypothesis to Pascal’s wager as a frame of reference of course you’ll always find an interpretation where absence is weak evidence of something. I find it more useful to work with narrower worlds.
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