1/ Developing a basic understanding and intuition around how complex systems work may be the most important thing I've learned in the last five years.
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The resulting problem being that the models are completely wrong or that they don't have the same predictive power as they do in physical systems and should be seen in a more "loose guideline" way?
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In fact, the cleanest critique is in the Obliquity book you pointed me to. The "muddling through" paper gets to the heart of it. Successive limited comparisons is both more insightful and more effective than trying to model/understand the whole thing.
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