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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

This is my conversational account. For my work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 17 Feb 2018
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    Brainteaser (I don’t know the answer): what interest rate would you get from a bank for a 1 month loan if everybody knew all life on earth was going to be destroyed by an asteroid in 6 months?

    10:25 AM - 17 Feb 2018
    • 1 Retweet
    • 13 Likes
    • Coy David McDougall ∃𝑋[∅∈𝑋∧∀𝑦(𝑦∈𝑋⇒𝑦∪{𝑦}∈𝑋)] Benedict Fritz rudy cloudman Balázs Kégl David Willard colin barnes سـعود حسـين
    14 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
      1. Mark Birch‏ @LordRamjet 17 Feb 2018
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        Replying to @vgr

        Don’t think loans would exist. Seller prices would increase vastly beyond loan, banks would assume you have no intention of paying loan back and would everyone stop working anyway?

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      1. Will Bickford‏ @wbic16 17 Feb 2018
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        Loan lifetimes would drop from 60 months to 12 days. Interest would be payable every 5 hours. Rates would jump to 5% *per day*. Based upon these facts for a typical 5-year personal loan: * 6.3% of client's lifetime * Lender ROI: 1.75x Also, we'd be colonizing the solar system.

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      1. Wat Ching‏ @watching102 17 Feb 2018
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        In the absence of infinity it would have to be zero.

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      1. Naveen Mishra‏ @_naveenmishra 17 Feb 2018
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        (Cost of rocket ticket/ net worth)*f(ability to survive off earth,value in new system, reproducibility) So I am thinking high

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      1. Gene Linetsky‏ @GeneLinetsky 18 Feb 2018
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        Replying to @vgr

        Assuming that the generalized bank as a rational economic player, whose target value function to optimize stays true to charter, the interest would depend on the anticipated default rate, the current and projected economic conditions.

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      1. Gene Linetsky‏ @GeneLinetsky 18 Feb 2018
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        Replying to @vgr

        (cont.) One would expect new kinds of very short-terms business models to emerge, with participants requiring financing and banks competing to provide it. The resulting interest rate would probably be very high but not much higher than at check cashers today.

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      1. Steven Isley‏ @Steve_C_I 23 Feb 2018
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        I'm guessing in theory consumption would go through the roof, which would compete with investment, so high interest rates. In reality, banks couldn't count on anyone repaying a loan and would stop lending, then be nationalized by the gov't last ditch effort to avoid destruction.

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      1. Dr G‏ @GrahamHill 17 Feb 2018
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        What would be the point of lending at all?

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      1. productiveENTP's ebook is available for pre-order!‏ @productiveENTP 17 Feb 2018
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        I think the banks would collapse

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      1. Jack Keane‏ @jpkeane 17 Feb 2018
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        Replying to @vgr

        LOL

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