Seems Warren Buffett is ~33% in cash. Is there an index of cash positions of bellwether investors? Could you use such an index to estimate the *confidence* in the trajectory of the stock market? Seems like a better measure than a trailing volatility measure.
Aren't they the same thing? Expecting great deals is the same as expecting a crash and therefore risk of such. Unless you mean expectation of great deals in M&A or private equity.
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mostly the latter. But can also be true for public stocks if you want to scout for the most mispriced assets & invest in short notice.
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munger discusses this quite a bit in his speeches and writing. Parking in cash waiting for great deals better than random investments.
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