1/ There are no “authentic” politicians, let alone “statesmen” or “stateswomen”.
There are only Big Stories looking for Heroes, and people convinced enough that they are The One to persuade others.
Don’t evaluate potential candidates, evaluate stories looking for actors.
Conversation
2/ Consider recent Big Stories and the Heroes/Champions they found. Isn’t it interesting I don’t have to name these people, the stories are enough to uniquely pick out the people.
“White grievance looking for a messenger”
“Youth anger at stolen young adulthood”
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3/ There aren’t always Big Stories competing for attention in a marketplace of narratives.
But if there ARE Big Stories, those cast in them will take the game to a different level.
Non-Big-Story candidates will have to spend lots of $ to stay in the game
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4/ Big Story candidates can be villains too. Rob Moore lost Alabama as Child Molester vs #MeToo
Doug Jones had a story too, but it was an individual-scale little story, not a Big Story. He didn’t win, Rob Moore lost.
Big Story always beats little story.
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5/ In the future there will be 3 kinds of elections
A) No Big Story in fray, bigger $ candidate wins
B) Big Story vs. little story, Big Story will win. Upset/steal opportunity if Big Story favors your party.
C) Big Story vs. Big Story: toss-up. I can’t think of a good example.
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6/ So, if you are interested in politics, and have money you want to bet in leveraged ways, look for Big Stories to bet on, not candidates.
Type A elections will be attrition warfare, with no leverage. Type B is a no-brainer if legit. Type C is almost completely unpredictable.
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7/ Big Stories currently looking for heroes/villains in the US:
#MeToo
Silicon Valley is Evil
Angry Puerto Ricans
Interesting non-candidates: climate change, extreme weather, rent-is-too-damn-high.
What makes a good Big Story?
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8/ Needed features for a Big Story:
A) Strong, dominant negative emotion
B) A felt lack of agency
C) Abstract* enemy who can be symbolized by a single person (if elite) or stereotype (if non-elite)
* But not too abstract — “Chinese” is remote in a way “Mexican” is not
Replying to
9/ Curiously, a key requirement for a Big Story is *lack* of a corresponding little story for the candidate in question.
As individuals, (as opposed to as roles in a story) they are featureless voids. Take out role-salient traits and you’re left with nothing. They’re pure masks
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