Plush the knowing nod with the d20 visual
-
-
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Well it's hard to explain what probability number actually *mean* :) I really started to understand probability, "philosophically", when I read this book. VERY Bayseian (and hard math), but that's good. Bayseian probability actually makes sense to me :)https://www.amazon.com/Probability-Theory-Science-T-Jaynes/dp/0521592712 …
-
The useful insight is Probability is ***not*** an objective description of reality. Probability is just a way to describe the imperfect knowledge of our world.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
- End of conversation
-
-
-
Even shorter TL;DR: People are (intuitively) bad at probabilities…

-
You’re probably right.
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Teach Markov in Middle School!
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Except to say that there's no such thing as "the probabilities." In the case of elections or weather, there are different forecasts. So while the screamers are mostly wrong, the models themselves are imperfect and not perfectly calibrated - otherwise we wouldn't see any variation
-
Once the TV weather guy said a 25% chance of rain meant a quarter of the region would have rain all day, or half the region would have rain half the day, or everyone was going to get 6 hours. But nobody was getting zero rain. I don't watch him anymore.
- Show replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.