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I was going to share this well-written article, but at the end of the piece, it had to get political. And thus, I didn't want a political discussion on boxing day and left it sitting in the corner.
Another way to put it: probabilities are not intrinsic properties of the universe. They are subjective degrees of belief that a proposition is true. Sometimes probabilities are calibrated well.
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Once the TV weather guy said a 25% chance of rain meant a quarter of the region would have rain all day, or half the region would have rain half the day, or everyone was going to get 6 hours. But nobody was getting zero rain. I don't watch him anymore.
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the visualization story didn't work for my friends and I in 2016:
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.@DLeonhardt nice piece. On Oct. 26 2016--2 days before Comey's suprise--I shared this balls-in-urn visualization of Trump's betfair odds w/Facebook friends We all felt it, but the story didn't stick. @nytopinion didn't provide the social proof.👇👉 nytimes.com/2017/12/24/opi
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