This from prospect theory (Kahneman and tversky) gives a nice view of how humans perceive probabilities. Its why people play the lottery and are afraid of airplane travel.pic.twitter.com/6mrLoSlwnl
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This from prospect theory (Kahneman and tversky) gives a nice view of how humans perceive probabilities. Its why people play the lottery and are afraid of airplane travel.pic.twitter.com/6mrLoSlwnl
Since this was far and away my most popular tweet, here is some more - quantitative assessments of qualitative probabilities. I was surprised by the spread. Note also local maxima near 0 and 1 present in most @vgrpic.twitter.com/QaIJnkvWy4
Well it's hard to explain what probability number actually *mean* :) I really started to understand probability, "philosophically", when I read this book. VERY Bayseian (and hard math), but that's good. Bayseian probability actually makes sense to me :)https://www.amazon.com/Probability-Theory-Science-T-Jaynes/dp/0521592712 …
The useful insight is Probability is ***not*** an objective description of reality. Probability is just a way to describe the imperfect knowledge of our world.
Even shorter TL;DR: People are (intuitively) bad at probabilities… 
You’re probably right.
Plush the knowing nod with the d20 visual
In business it manifests as an inability to pursue multiple forks at once: strategy = erroneously assigning 100% certainty to future events
Except to say that there's no such thing as "the probabilities." In the case of elections or weather, there are different forecasts. So while the screamers are mostly wrong, the models themselves are imperfect and not perfectly calibrated - otherwise we wouldn't see any variation
Once the TV weather guy said a 25% chance of rain meant a quarter of the region would have rain all day, or half the region would have rain half the day, or everyone was going to get 6 hours. But nobody was getting zero rain. I don't watch him anymore.
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