What major milestones have been reached much earlier than predicted by futurists? Trying to compile a list.
Examples: AI conquering Go, China becoming largest auto market, 400ppm carbon...
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These seem like corner cases. Futurists are typically too aggressive with timelines, even when they get the predictions right.
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They are rarer, but not corner cases. I think there's a definite non-measure-zero set here defining a likely-to-be-faster-than-predicted phenomena.
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I don't know. AI had its winter. Mullaly knew China would be biggest market 10 years ago. Revelle saw CO2 trend in the 1960s.
Are we talking about most futurists? All futurists?
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But I'm saying not a corner case in relation to the phenomena themselves. There are phenomena in a broad class I think that cause earlier-than-expected prediction errors. Possibly something to do with hyperbolic discounting/Amara's law etc. Exponentials are one aspect of it
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Okay you're thinking at too high a level of abstraction for me. 😛
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