The more VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity) in the world, the less useful the state-propagation model of foresight.
State-propagation model: define boundary of 'important', book-keep what is in/out, propagate the 'in' bits via some model, ignore 'out' bits.
Conversation
...the problem with the state propagation model under VUCA is that the state churns so much from in/out instability that there's no point forecasting more than 1 step out. Less obviously, memories become useless more than 1 step back. So you're temporal horizons shrink
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