The more VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity) in the world, the less useful the state-propagation model of foresight. State-propagation model: define boundary of 'important', book-keep what is in/out, propagate the 'in' bits via some model, ignore 'out' bits.
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... you decide what's important overall, in a cradle to grave sense, and track it through peaks and troughs of situational importance, whether or not it's doing anything interesting at a given time
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...the situational foresight problem then turns into a 2-step problem: detect "interaction bundles" of individual important dynamics, and propagate past mixing events (kinda like billiard ball collisions). This is like tracking a bunch of interacting subplots of a story.
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