The more VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity) in the world, the less useful the state-propagation model of foresight. State-propagation model: define boundary of 'important', book-keep what is in/out, propagate the 'in' bits via some model, ignore 'out' bits.
-
-
...the alternative I've been increasingly using isn't as familiar because it doesn't have an obvious mathematical analogy in quantitative models. The key is to decouple assessments of what is important from mechanisms of propagation.
Show this thread -
... you decide what's important overall, in a cradle to grave sense, and track it through peaks and troughs of situational importance, whether or not it's doing anything interesting at a given time
Show this thread -
...the situational foresight problem then turns into a 2-step problem: detect "interaction bundles" of individual important dynamics, and propagate past mixing events (kinda like billiard ball collisions). This is like tracking a bunch of interacting subplots of a story.
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
i have spent a lot of time recently staring at the logistic map
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.