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10 percentile points of talent is worth how many years of deliberate practice in your field? (Specify field) Example: in writing I think it's about a decade. An average person will need 50 years to get to where a top 0.1%er will be at age 21.
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I'd still guess that discipline and practice determine (or strongly influence) the very top due to heavy initial selection effects. Also, writing likely divides into subfields, e.g. talent is relatively more important for literature, less for nonfiction.
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20 years for work at the intersection of creativity, commerce and tech. Because (a) it's easy to get 'up' real quick because demand is high, and (b) stuff moves so quick it's hard work to stay ahead of the challenge
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