Negative 2 years, on average. The more you learn, the ten times as much new unknown stuff pops up.
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You mean in CS right?

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I'd still guess that discipline and practice determine (or strongly influence) the very top due to heavy initial selection effects. Also, writing likely divides into subfields, e.g. talent is relatively more important for literature, less for nonfiction.
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20 years for work at the intersection of creativity, commerce and tech. Because (a) it's easy to get 'up' real quick because demand is high, and (b) stuff moves so quick it's hard work to stay ahead of the challenge
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1-2 years. Bodypainting.
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Game design is in a similar ballpark I think
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I don't think I understand my field well enough to say.
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