Tom Friedman's interview with MBS https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/23/opinion/saudi-prince-mbs-arab-spring.html …
-
-
Replying to @vgr
Mick Costigan Retweeted Abdullah Al-Arian
Mick Costigan added,
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @micostigan
Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao added,
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @vgr
That’s a poor analogy, unless the confident forecast of rain was for a desert place like Riyadh where rain is very unlikely.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @micostigan
My point is, there's an actual problem to engage about the "weather" today. Just referencing a history of coverage is to damn by association. Sheds no light on the situation today. Sure we share 97% genome with chimps. Tell me about the 3%.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @vgr
I get your point but in Tetlockian terms there’s a lot of value in seeing the larger dataset and judging the quality of the prediction: of the 20-odd times the NyT has claimed meaningful reform is happening in Saudi, they have never been right
3 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @micostigan
Having lived through a bunch of those news cycles I do think there's something different this time. MBL is not that special, yet another image-managed princeling, but the conditions he's navigating are (low oil prices, Russia, surging renewables, climate change...)
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @vgr
Many of those factors have been around before (oil prices) or for a while (climate change). Arguably their confluence may be new. I’d argue Iran/Shi’a tensions are a significant causal factor. The article informed us little about any of them though.
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
In general, due to the overall weirding of the last 2 years, I think any arguments of the form "this is a 70 year pattern" are suspect and red-flagged for me. You can no longer assume a "normal" pattern for anything. "This time it's different" has been correct too often lately
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.