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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 24 Nov 2017
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      Tom Friedman's interview with MBS https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/23/opinion/saudi-prince-mbs-arab-spring.html …

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Mick Costigan‏ @micostigan 24 Nov 2017
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      Replying to @vgr

      Mick Costigan Retweeted Abdullah Al-Arian

      https://twitter.com/anhistorian/status/934080718816399361 …

      Mick Costigan added,

      Abdullah Al-Arian @anhistorian
      In honor of Thomas Friedman’s latest love letter to Saudi here is 70 years of the NY Times describing #Saudi royals in the language of #reform.
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 24 Nov 2017
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      Replying to @micostigan

      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Venkatesh Rao

      https://twitter.com/vgr/status/934171576202698752 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Venkatesh Rao @vgr
      Replying to @sagar__dubey
      Sorry, but that's a poor line of argument. It's like compiling clips of a weather reporter saying "it will rain" over decades to argue it won't rain tomorrow. Rebut the actual case that there's reform on.
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Mick Costigan‏ @micostigan 24 Nov 2017
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      Replying to @vgr

      That’s a poor analogy, unless the confident forecast of rain was for a desert place like Riyadh where rain is very unlikely.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 24 Nov 2017
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      Replying to @micostigan

      My point is, there's an actual problem to engage about the "weather" today. Just referencing a history of coverage is to damn by association. Sheds no light on the situation today. Sure we share 97% genome with chimps. Tell me about the 3%.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Mick Costigan‏ @micostigan 24 Nov 2017
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      Replying to @vgr

      I get your point but in Tetlockian terms there’s a lot of value in seeing the larger dataset and judging the quality of the prediction: of the 20-odd times the NyT has claimed meaningful reform is happening in Saudi, they have never been right

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 24 Nov 2017
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      Replying to @micostigan

      Having lived through a bunch of those news cycles I do think there's something different this time. MBL is not that special, yet another image-managed princeling, but the conditions he's navigating are (low oil prices, Russia, surging renewables, climate change...)

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Mick Costigan‏ @micostigan 24 Nov 2017
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      Replying to @vgr

      Many of those factors have been around before (oil prices) or for a while (climate change). Arguably their confluence may be new. I’d argue Iran/Shi’a tensions are a significant causal factor. The article informed us little about any of them though.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 24 Nov 2017
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      Replying to @micostigan

      In general, due to the overall weirding of the last 2 years, I think any arguments of the form "this is a 70 year pattern" are suspect and red-flagged for me. You can no longer assume a "normal" pattern for anything. "This time it's different" has been correct too often lately

      3:54 PM - 24 Nov 2017
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      • Mick Costigan
      0 replies 1 retweet 1 like

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