Tom Friedman's interview with MBS https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/23/opinion/saudi-prince-mbs-arab-spring.html …
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Replying to @vgr
Mick Costigan Retweeted Abdullah Al-Arian
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Replying to @micostigan
Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Venkatesh Rao
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Replying to @vgr
That’s a poor analogy, unless the confident forecast of rain was for a desert place like Riyadh where rain is very unlikely.
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Replying to @micostigan
My point is, there's an actual problem to engage about the "weather" today. Just referencing a history of coverage is to damn by association. Sheds no light on the situation today. Sure we share 97% genome with chimps. Tell me about the 3%.
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Replying to @vgr
I get your point but in Tetlockian terms there’s a lot of value in seeing the larger dataset and judging the quality of the prediction: of the 20-odd times the NyT has claimed meaningful reform is happening in Saudi, they have never been right
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Replying to @micostigan
Having lived through a bunch of those news cycles I do think there's something different this time. MBL is not that special, yet another image-managed princeling, but the conditions he's navigating are (low oil prices, Russia, surging renewables, climate change...)
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Replying to @vgr
Many of those factors have been around before (oil prices) or for a while (climate change). Arguably their confluence may be new. I’d argue Iran/Shi’a tensions are a significant causal factor. The article informed us little about any of them though.
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Yeah, perhaps. But the purge and the potential challenge to the wahhabists are important subplots to keep an eye on and he covers those. Many moving parts here.
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Replying to @vgr
The purge is the true novelty here agreed. But the argument that it’s a crackdown on corruption when the family owns the country, he just bought a $500m yacht etc, lacks credibility.
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