Tom Friedman's interview with MBS nytimes.com/2017/11/23/opi
Conversation
Replying to
Quote Tweet
Replying to @sagar__dubey
Sorry, but that's a poor line of argument. It's like compiling clips of a weather reporter saying "it will rain" over decades to argue it won't rain tomorrow. Rebut the actual case that there's reform on.
1
Replying to
That’s a poor analogy, unless the confident forecast of rain was for a desert place like Riyadh where rain is very unlikely.
1
Replying to
My point is, there's an actual problem to engage about the "weather" today. Just referencing a history of coverage is to damn by association. Sheds no light on the situation today. Sure we share 97% genome with chimps. Tell me about the 3%.
1
1
Replying to
I get your point but in Tetlockian terms there’s a lot of value in seeing the larger dataset and judging the quality of the prediction: of the 20-odd times the NyT has claimed meaningful reform is happening in Saudi, they have never been right
3
1
Replying to
Having lived through a bunch of those news cycles I do think there's something different this time. MBL is not that special, yet another image-managed princeling, but the conditions he's navigating are (low oil prices, Russia, surging renewables, climate change...)
1
2
Replying to
Many of those factors have been around before (oil prices) or for a while (climate change). Arguably their confluence may be new. I’d argue Iran/Shi’a tensions are a significant causal factor. The article informed us little about any of them though.
2
1
Replying to
Yeah, perhaps. But the purge and the potential challenge to the wahhabists are important subplots to keep an eye on and he covers those. Many moving parts here.
Replying to
The purge is the true novelty here agreed. But the argument that it’s a crackdown on corruption when the family owns the country, he just bought a $500m yacht etc, lacks credibility.
2

