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My point is, there's an actual problem to engage about the "weather" today. Just referencing a history of coverage is to damn by association. Sheds no light on the situation today. Sure we share 97% genome with chimps. Tell me about the 3%.
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I get your point but in Tetlockian terms there’s a lot of value in seeing the larger dataset and judging the quality of the prediction: of the 20-odd times the NyT has claimed meaningful reform is happening in Saudi, they have never been right
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Having lived through a bunch of those news cycles I do think there's something different this time. MBL is not that special, yet another image-managed princeling, but the conditions he's navigating are (low oil prices, Russia, surging renewables, climate change...)
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