Tom Friedman's interview with MBS https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/23/opinion/saudi-prince-mbs-arab-spring.html …
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I get your point but in Tetlockian terms there’s a lot of value in seeing the larger dataset and judging the quality of the prediction: of the 20-odd times the NyT has claimed meaningful reform is happening in Saudi, they have never been right
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Having lived through a bunch of those news cycles I do think there's something different this time. MBL is not that special, yet another image-managed princeling, but the conditions he's navigating are (low oil prices, Russia, surging renewables, climate change...)
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