I think there's a non-trivial chance (>1%) Homo sapiens will be extinct within a few centuries due to fairly banal x-risks (no AGIs or nukes or asteroids or permafrost methane catastrophes needed) Surprising part is that the thought doesn't bother me. At all.
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Replying to @vgr
What's an example of one of these relatively banal x-risks? Need examples for arguments with MIRI goons, & my standard "nukes" argument feels stale.
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Replying to @spiderfoods
People just not wanting to reproduce for various reasons, men giving up on women and switching to sexbots, child-rearing culture collapsing (babies need villages etc)
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Replying to @puellavulnerata
Higher technological development narrows the relevant dimensions of variance, increases irrelevant ones
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Replying to @puellavulnerata
True, that's why my probability estimate is non-trivial but low
8:24 AM - 10 Nov 2017
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