I think there's a non-trivial chance (>1%) Homo sapiens will be extinct within a few centuries due to fairly banal x-risks (no AGIs or nukes or asteroids or permafrost methane catastrophes needed) Surprising part is that the thought doesn't bother me. At all.
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Replying to @vgr
What's an example of one of these relatively banal x-risks? Need examples for arguments with MIRI goons, & my standard "nukes" argument feels stale.
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Replying to @spiderfoods
People just not wanting to reproduce for various reasons, men giving up on women and switching to sexbots, child-rearing culture collapsing (babies need villages etc)
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Replying to @spiderfoods @vgr
Methinks you spend too much time in Seattleite antinatalist bubble though, perhaps :D. Adding a 4th: Christianity makes a full comeback and humanity dies of boredom.
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Replying to @spiderfoods
Nah I'm not antinatal, it's just macroeconomics. Everywhere living standards rise birth rates fall. Mechanisms and justifications vary. Religion is irrelevant. Philosophy is irrelevant.
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Replying to @vgr
Kids basically lower quality of life at higher material standards of living. With birth control, you have to go into increasing denial and oppression of women to maintain replacement rate. There are no incentives. None. The brain interrupts inclusive fitness dynamics
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Replying to @spiderfoods @vgr
(i do appreciate your differential x-diagnosis; but think you underestimate the human capacity for cognitive dissonance, esp. when survival is at stake)
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Replying to @spiderfoods @vgr
if we reach low enough pop levels, does 5000 acres per child change the equation at all?
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Oh god you're an anti-vaxxer
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