I think there's a non-trivial chance (>1%) Homo sapiens will be extinct within a few centuries due to fairly banal x-risks (no AGIs or nukes or asteroids or permafrost methane catastrophes needed) Surprising part is that the thought doesn't bother me. At all.
Higher technological development narrows the relevant dimensions of variance, increases irrelevant ones
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True, that's why my probability estimate is non-trivial but low
End of conversation
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