I think there's a non-trivial chance (>1%) Homo sapiens will be extinct within a few centuries due to fairly banal x-risks (no AGIs or nukes or asteroids or permafrost methane catastrophes needed)
Surprising part is that the thought doesn't bother me.
At all.
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What's an example of one of these relatively banal x-risks? Need examples for arguments with MIRI goons, & my standard "nukes" argument feels stale.
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People just not wanting to reproduce for various reasons, men giving up on women and switching to sexbots, child-rearing culture collapsing (babies need villages etc)
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Methinks you spend too much time in Seattleite antinatalist bubble though, perhaps :D. Adding a 4th: Christianity makes a full comeback and humanity dies of boredom.
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Nah I'm not antinatal, it's just macroeconomics. Everywhere living standards rise birth rates fall. Mechanisms and justifications vary. Religion is irrelevant. Philosophy is irrelevant.
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The technology 200 years from now could make raising kids a rewarding breeze.
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Tech for sexbots could also make nannybots and governessbots. Then kids are cheap again. And the whole world adopts the traditionally super-rich household setup of wife + governess + mistress.



