13/ So we actually bring the same kind of thinking to managing ambition as we do to child-rearing and ask similar questions
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Replying to @vgr
14/ How much will it cost? Is it sick? Will it go to college? How many can I afford to have?
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Replying to @vgr
15/ Answering my own q about why we lower sights through life in general if we're not winning egregiously, baby-economics provides answer
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Replying to @vgr
16/ Merely making money is a close-ended problem to be solved, whether your horizon is the next month, the next year or retirement stash
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Replying to @vgr
17/ A baby or baby-equivalent though is an open-ended commitment where it only makes sense if you are willing to plan for success
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Replying to @vgr
18/ It is fine to view paychecks as just a close-ended way to pay bills. It's dumb *not* to wish a book to be open-ended success
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Replying to @vgr
19/ Similarly, close-ended "3x flip in 2 years" startup logic doesn't work for same reason "have baby and kill it at age 3" doesn't work
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Replying to @vgr
20/ So ambition is best understood as your personal process of budgeting for *open-ended* commitments through life, predicated on success
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Replying to @vgr
21/ Fewer people found startups at 40 than 25 (though more who do succeed) same reason fewer people have kids late (bio clock aside)...
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Replying to @vgr
22/ You rationally estimate that your available rest-of-life open-ended best-case attention budget for "one more kid" gets lower with age
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23/ So to summarize: measure your ambitions in baby-equivalent units and take on what you think you can actually raise if successful
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Replying to @vgr
24/ Oh, and one more thing... the way you compute ambition is marginal, same as kids. "Can I afford 1 more kid?" is always the question.
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Replying to @vgr
25/ PS: choosing not to have kids/being anti-natalist is familiar.There is also choosing to have no memetic kids/being memetic-anti-natalist
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