1/ I think one of the problems with consequentialism is that it presupposes that probabilities of outcomes can be known.
Conversation
Replying to
2/ This simply isn’t true for most ethical choices we make in our lives.
1
1
Replying to
3/ Most of the ethical choices we make in life are filled with unknown unknowns so trying to calculate consequences is impossible
2
1
2
Replying to
This seems like a misunderstanding of consequentialism. It's merely the act of reasoning from ends to means, not deterministic ends.
1
2
Replying to
Isn’t the act of reasoning from ends to means empty if the ends are unpredictable though? Or am I missing something?
1
Replying to
No, but probabilities are pretty well known there. Works fine there. But what about when the outcomes are unclear?
2
Replying to
Then you apply taleb type optionality: you can seek serendipity. Luck itself can be a consequentialist goal.

