B/w 3 & 4 - I'll specify a distribution over possibilities. Scaling the options in (0,1) as .1 / .2 / .5 / .9, ballpark, beta(4,2)
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But I suspect it's not based on compromat, just business interests and strong ideological affiliation by much of his staff.
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The worst case is not obviously true, but plausible enough we should take it seriously.
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Very deep and very serious. NATO and geopolitical security at stake. Putin is dangerous and desperate.
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I am surprised how little it is talked about.
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if it's blackmail, I wonder what they have that could possibly damage his reputation.
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