11/ The counterfactual isn't just "no nuclear war, no concentration camps, haha you liberals were scaremongering"
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Replying to @vgr
12/ Firstly, if somebody paid real but non-market costs to ensure doomsday didn't happen, your positive outcome isn't what you claim
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Replying to @vgr
13/ Secondly, even if you leave out doomsday, right macro counterfactual is: how well *could* economy have done with a more normal POTUS?
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Replying to @vgr
14/ Fair comparison would be a POTUS who might have done similar things but with less fascist craziness that has all non-white-males on edge
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Replying to @vgr
15/ ie POTUS who pursues protectionism, ACA repeal, NATO unwind etc., but *without* threatening judges, tweet-destablizing war zones etc
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Replying to @vgr
16/ Counterfactual diff gets at the costs of keeping fascists in check... how much economic value was lost in neutralizing the loony bits?
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Replying to @vgr
17/ And don't forget another thing the market can't price: the shared psychological demons created with moral compromises on basic values
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Replying to @vgr
18/ The market *still* hasn't priced in the history of black slavery into the US economic narrative for instance, and probably never will
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Replying to @vgr
19/ Slavery reparations are (imo) unrealistic/idealistic, but that doesn't mean people aren't still paying for that market-unpriced history
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Replying to @vgr
20/ If we get through 4-8y without a blip in markets, but create yuge unpriced psyche wounds, would we have "won" Trump era? You decide.
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21/ Footnote: afaik, Seth Klarman is among the few major/credible Trump bears. He's 30% cash now https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/06/business/dealbook/sorkin-seth-klarman-trump-investors.html …
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