9/ Checks and balances are a) not free b) mostly paid for as 'insurance costs' in non-priced ways c) by people who can least afford to do so
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10/ And this is just micro-level issues with market-based narrative of 'everything is fine' there is the macro-level: fine compared to WHAT?
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11/ The counterfactual isn't just "no nuclear war, no concentration camps, haha you liberals were scaremongering"
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12/ Firstly, if somebody paid real but non-market costs to ensure doomsday didn't happen, your positive outcome isn't what you claim
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13/ Secondly, even if you leave out doomsday, right macro counterfactual is: how well *could* economy have done with a more normal POTUS?
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14/ Fair comparison would be a POTUS who might have done similar things but with less fascist craziness that has all non-white-males on edge
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15/ ie POTUS who pursues protectionism, ACA repeal, NATO unwind etc., but *without* threatening judges, tweet-destablizing war zones etc
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16/ Counterfactual diff gets at the costs of keeping fascists in check... how much economic value was lost in neutralizing the loony bits?
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17/ And don't forget another thing the market can't price: the shared psychological demons created with moral compromises on basic values
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18/ The market *still* hasn't priced in the history of black slavery into the US economic narrative for instance, and probably never will
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20/ If we get through 4-8y without a blip in markets, but create yuge unpriced psyche wounds, would we have "won" Trump era? You decide.
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21/ Footnote: afaik, Seth Klarman is among the few major/credible Trump bears. He's 30% cash now nytimes.com/2017/02/06/bus
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