1/ There is a growing narrative that the market's apparent confidence in Trump means all is well.http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2017/02/vix-show-far.html …
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12/ Firstly, if somebody paid real but non-market costs to ensure doomsday didn't happen, your positive outcome isn't what you claim
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13/ Secondly, even if you leave out doomsday, right macro counterfactual is: how well *could* economy have done with a more normal POTUS?
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VIX & Cowen seem to assume Trump doesn't mean what he says on trade, (e.g. NAFTA) which is EOable. That's an interesting choice.
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