2/ It's a strong and credible narrative, and better than many extremely alarmist ones, but you have to be aware of its limitations.
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3/ There are two main problems with the "market likes trump --> all is good" story: externalities and insurance costs.
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Markets focus on short term. Look at Demographics in Western World, just terrible, for a different picture
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I think this is a more specific problem... it's more a bubble driver than in generic class of hard-to-price things
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1/Which market? If the stock market specifically (because the OTC space is opaque), most of the $ are controlled by long only managers.
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2/They tend to be overly optimistic b/c of the impact/impossibility of going to cash. Things have to get OBVIOUSLY bad before they move
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German stock market in WWII went up until Stalingrad http://www.investmentoffice.com/io/Investment_Thoughts/Markets_in_History/Stock_Markets_during_the_second_World_War.php …
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But does it account for possible model misspecification on a structural level a la "25-sigma events"? :)
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the market is delusional
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