Biggest problem with "real" psychohistory real is classification of events as novel-exogenous vs endogenous-subplot-continuation
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2 tautological & useless modeling limits are "everything is endogenous since big bang" and "everything is novel narrative impulse to system"
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One somewhat arbitrary idea: events have at most 3 cycles in history or end up as part of "human condition" "fatalism axiom"
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My output is simulated narratives with events as primitives. Not trying to predict future so much as forecast "event spread"
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