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Current mental state on crowdfunding: 1) large-lump capital is too risky if project turns out to cost $N+1 2) I don't wanna work for tips
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Iron Law of Crowdfunding: The $ you could raise with your current brand equity is always less than $ that could make a big diff in your life
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you notice the successful KS projects are "finished", offer the product itself as "reward", and just need the $ for manufacturing.
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Bernoulli with a register: start H=0, T=1; "win" when H=T. P(H)≥.5 —reasonable job of simulating "information-generating" processes.
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