"update your beliefs" makes it sound like there's a spreadsheet in your skull and you go in and change a value, no big deal
Conversation
Replying to
actually finding out you were deceived or wrong has major emotional costs - a sense of betrayal, shame, the beckoning horror of chaos
7
25
50
Replying to
the meager rewards of insight and humility are hardly a match - rational utility maximizers should often choose to stay deceived
3
9
28
Replying to
Google 'truth maintenance systems' for a treasure trove of AI research on this... Much of it misguided, but in revealing ways
the phenomenon of "probability matching" (a kind of ideal sampling) seems to happen at the group level more than individual


