1/ I'm all for tweetstorms, and was among the first to jump on the bandwagon and now run a newsletter in the format, but...
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Replying to @vgr
2/ THIS conversation should not have to happen on twitter http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/08/you-have-read-amazing-tweetstorm-jeb-bushs-national-security-adviser-about-trump …
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Replying to @vgr
3/ In deterrence theory terms, Trump is doing something called brinkmanship (term coined by Schelling)
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Replying to @vgr
4/ Brinkmanship is a way to "use" things via optics of probability that you would never use deterministically if sane
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Replying to @vgr
5/ It works because adversary will believe in credible threat that things might go wrong in the heat of war, via rogue behavior
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Replying to @vgr
6/ But the scenarios usually considered happen further down chain of command ("rogue field commander" trope).
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Replying to @vgr
7/ Trump would represent brinkmanship at the top. Can it work as a new kind of deterrence doctrine? I for one, don't want to find out.
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Replying to @vgr
Nixon deliberately used this tactic in negotiations w/Vietnam, calling it the "madman theory." Nixon was lots of things, but not crazy
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unfortunately I think Trump is actually mad here... he's like Nixon in a crazy new incarnation
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