1/ I'm all for tweetstorms, and was among the first to jump on the bandwagon and now run a newsletter in the format, but...
Conversation
Replying to
2/ THIS conversation should not have to happen on twitter motherjones.com/politics/2016/
1
6
5
Replying to
3/ In deterrence theory terms, Trump is doing something called brinkmanship (term coined by Schelling)
3
1
2
Replying to
4/ Brinkmanship is a way to "use" things via optics of probability that you would never use deterministically if sane
1
2
2
Replying to
5/ It works because adversary will believe in credible threat that things might go wrong in the heat of war, via rogue behavior
1
1
Replying to
6/ But the scenarios usually considered happen further down chain of command ("rogue field commander" trope).
Replying to
7/ Trump would represent brinkmanship at the top. Can it work as a new kind of deterrence doctrine? I for one, don't want to find out.
1
4
Replying to
Nixon deliberately used this tactic in negotiations w/Vietnam, calling it the "madman theory." Nixon was lots of things, but not crazy
1
1
Show replies

